Index 01 · Geopolitics
Chaos Index
The world feels more dangerous lately. Here is how it actually looks to thousands of people betting real money on it, and to the AI models we ask the same questions.
Photo by Koshu Kunii on Unsplash
Escalation
11.4+0.0 today
Peace
24.5+1.1 today
Escalation
4.3
Peace
9.7
The market's running estimate of global risk
60 days · updated through 11:01 UTC
The models read the world as calmer than the money does, on both counts. At the last print they put conflict at 6.1 where the market stood at 11.4, and de-escalation at 28.3 where it stood at 23.3.
The second opinion
3 frontier models, each asked alone with the question and its rules. We hide the price so they argue from precedent instead of copying the market.
machine_20260824 · 2026-08-24
Model by model
The headline is the median of these, so one outlier cannot move it. Models also differ in when their training data stops, so part of any gap here is vintage rather than judgement.
All constituents
live odds as of 11:01 UTC · list last changed 2026-08-25 (v1.1)
| Market | Forecast | Yes odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US annexes Greenland landAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 6.5% |
| US strikes CubaAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 16.5% |
| US invades CubaAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 7.5% |
| US invades VenezuelaAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 3.6% |
| US strikes ColombiaAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 34.0% |
| US takes Panama CanalAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 3.6% |
| US strikes MexicoAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 11.5% |
| Cuban regime fallsAmericas | Americas | Escalation | 13.5% |
| China invades TaiwanEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 3.9% |
| North Korea invades SouthEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 3.1% |
| China-Japan clashEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 7.5% |
| China-Taiwan clashEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 7.8% |
| China coup attemptEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 4.0% |
| China-Philippines clashEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 32.5% |
| China blockades TaiwanEast Asia | East Asia | Escalation | 5.6% |
| US military draftGlobal Order | Global Order | Escalation | 4.8% |
| NATO dissolvesGlobal Order | Global Order | Escalation | 3.0% |
| A country leaves NATOGlobal Order | Global Order | Escalation | 3.3% |
| India strikes PakistanGlobal Order | Global Order | Escalation | 12.5% |
| A country leaves the EUGlobal Order | Global Order | Escalation | 2.9% |
| Nothing Ever HappensGlobal Order | Global Order | unweighted | 81.5% |
| US invades IranIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 16.5% |
| Iranian regime fallsIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 7.5% |
| Hormuz back to normalIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 35.5% |
| Iran leadership changeIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 15.5% |
| US-Iran nuclear dealIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 11.5% |
| Iranian blockade endsIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 75.0% |
| US declares war on IranIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 3.7% |
| Iran surrenders uraniumIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 7.5% |
| Kharg Island lostIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 7.5% |
| Iran gets nukeIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 5.1% |
| US-Iran ceasefire holdsIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 75.5% |
| Iran ends enrichmentIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 13.5% |
| US-Iran meetingIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 50.5% |
| Iran exits NPTIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 11.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz feesIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Escalation | 44.5% |
| Israel-Iran ceasefire holdsIran & Gulf | Iran & Gulf | Peace | 70.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb closedMiddle East | Middle East | Escalation | 17.5% |
| Saudi-Israel normalizeMiddle East | Middle East | Peace | 7.5% |
| Abraham Accords growMiddle East | Middle East | Peace | 6.5% |
| Foreign intervention in GazaMiddle East | Middle East | Escalation | 27.0% |
| Israel leaves LebanonMiddle East | Middle East | Peace | 9.5% |
| Israel annexes West BankMiddle East | Middle East | Escalation | 8.5% |
| Israel-Turkey clashMiddle East | Middle East | Escalation | 14.5% |
| Hamas agrees to disarmMiddle East | Middle East | unweighted | 0.0% |
| Ukraine ceasefireRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Peace | 24.0% |
| NATO-Russia clashRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 25.5% |
| Russia invades NATO stateRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 5.0% |
| Ukraine peace deal signedRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Peace | 12.5% |
| Russia invades another countryRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 5.5% |
| Putin-Zelenskyy meetRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 93.5% |
| Russia coup attemptRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 6.5% |
| NATO Article 5 invokedRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 5.3% |
| Russia nuclear testRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | Escalation | 5.9% |
| Ukraine recapture Crimean territory byRussia-Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine | unweighted | 5.5% |
| China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027Taiwan & China | Taiwan & China | unweighted | 11.5% |
| China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027Taiwan & China | Taiwan & China | unweighted | 7.5% |
How we do this
A forecast here is one number summing up a whole basket of markets: the average chance, in percent, that those things happen. Every market carries a sign, danger or peace, and each forecast is the average of its markets' live odds weighted by the money at stake. The two are never blended, because a war starting and a peace deal failing are different facts. Every market eventually resolves, so every forecast here can be scored against what actually happened.
We hide the price so each model has to reason from history and precedent instead of reading the answer off a screen. That gives us a view formed independently of the market, which is the only kind worth setting against it. What we cannot hide is the world: a model's knowledge stops at its training date, so a wide gap can mean it is behind the news rather than ahead of the crowd. We publish the disagreement, not a verdict, and we never fill in the past: the machine line starts the day we first ran it.